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The endgame
Aurelie Barthere
Key Takeaways
9 min read
  • The net exchange outflows that followed the latest SEC’s charges against Binance and Coinbase last week were significant, and also part of a longer trend that started in the aftermath of FTX’s collapse last November.
  • Most likely regulatory “endgame”: a long period of uncertainty, followed by a financial settlement and a clearer framework defining which crypto assets are “securities” (scenario analysis in this note).
  • Important week for central banking: US Fed on hold at this meeting and for the rest of the cycle in our view; European Central Bank to hike by 25bps; Bank of Japan could surprise with policy normalization.

Last week’s announcements of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pressing charges against Binance (5 June) and Coinbase (6 June) triggered various dynamics in crypto markets. We first review the moves in on-chain and off-chain data following the two announcements, and then consider various future scenarios. The note finishes with an overview of the various central banks’ likely future strategies as this week contains the Fed, ECB, and BoJ meetings!

Anatomy of the market post SEC-announcements

In the week of the SEC announcements, the respective prices of COIN stock and BNB...