Nansen's take: Smoother macro waters entering 2023, but don’t underestimate central bankers’ hawkish determination

Global growth is trumping consensus and experiencing a revival, especially in the US and Europe. European consumers have been sheltered by energy subsidies (note: in January 2023 some subsidies expire in the UK and Continental Europe, the impact on consumption has to be followed closely). The European winter has been mild so far and wholesale gas prices are back to their yearly lows. But the US, notably the US consumer, is also more optimistic and still benefits from abundant job opportunities, even as US jobless claims remain close to their historical floor.

**This combination of lower inflationary pressures and...