This report reflects the discussions and views shared during our RA meeting. These are personal opinions of the team members and should not be interpreted as financial or trading advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

Executive Summary

🔵 Overall Stance: The team maintains a neutral stance with an increasingly constructive tilt. While caution persists in the short term, multiple analysts have begun gradually rotating capital into the majors, supported by improving technical indicators, heavy net short sentiment in markets, and anticipated macro clarity post-April 2. The view that we may have found a "local bottom" is gaining traction, with most still waiting for confirmation before deploying aggressively.

📉 Market Outlook & Positioning Shifts: The team's current strategy revolves around three key pillars:

1. Optimized Stable Farming Capital rotation out of lower-yield farms like Hyperliquid’s HLP into higher-yielding options like Noble's boosted vault (15% APR) and lvlUSD PT, as well as T-bill–backed solutions. Hyperliquid is largely exited across the team - both HLP vault and actual trading activity.
2. Strategic DCA into Majors Gradual accumulation of BTC and to a lesser extent other majors at key support levels remains a core theme. The team continues to rotate out of ETH, viewing it as relatively weak both technically and fundamentally.
3. Selective Alt Positioning DCA strategies and position sizing are growing around conviction plays such as PENDLE, SYNT, EIGEN, TIA IO, FXN, and emerging interest in names like AI16Z and PENGU. Overwhelmingly, BTC remains the lion share of new position sizing. Analysts are neutral to bullish in the medium term but remain size-conscious given ongoing macro uncertainty in the near term.

💰 Crypto Positioning: Stablecoin dominance remains high, but is declining as the team slowly increases risk exposure. Eyes are on post–April 2, when US tariff policy direction could serve as a market inflection point. Analysts expect volatility to persist through Q2 but are planning to scale risk into any dip opportunities following this window.

Token positions held by team members over $10k:

BTC, ETH, SOL, TIA, EIGEN, USDC, lvlUSD, SYNT, AO, eUSDE, USDN

The portfolio remains cautiously positioned, but conviction is building—particularly in majors and a curated group of altcoins—where the perceived risk/reward is beginning to skew favorably into 2025.

🟢 New Positions and Ideas:

• Aurelie: No new positions. Getting ready to add more risk (starting with BTC) as my main scenario is still that we bottom between now and June.
• Nicolai: DCA’ing into IO. Maintains bullish bias with room to size up. Looking to short ALTs/memes that saw increased mindshare spike while finding value plays to enter within the next 2 weeks depending on market conditions.
• Jake: No new positions - sitting on my hands waiting to enter BTC more as we dip. Fully rotated stable allocation into Noble, Summer Lazy Vaults, and Coinbase USDC. Continues slow DCA into BTC/SOL/TIA and rotation out of ETH.
• Niklas:
  • Rotated into eUSDE YT and lvlUSD PT for a delta-neutral position earning ~4% APR + Ethereal points
  • Went into lvlUSD/USDC Curve Pool for lvlUSD points
  • Still farming AO for ~9% currently (TVL and price fluctuate quite a bit), not selling what I farmed for now
  • Bought more PENDLE, ENA, BTC, SOL on the dip, now increasing stop limit orders to stay in profit, combined with lower buy orders

Quick Market Snapshot

Analyst Views and Positioning

Aurelie

🔹 Positioning: Neutral to Constructive at these levels - I think we bottom between now and June (70% probability, main scenario). For this scenario to be validated, I need to see 1) a constructive tariff negotiation between the US and the main trade partners, 3) Resilient labor market data and a March ISM non-manufacturing index > 52

🔹 Fundamentals:

• US growth: slowdown, no recession.
• Tariff uncertainty: local peak between April (now) and June
• US equity valuations: less expensive, still not cheap (at the index level e.g. S&P 500 at 21x PE still 0.5 StDev above 10yr average)

🔹 Technicals: BTC/USD has broken below its 200d MA. Market psychology is fragile (same pattern of broken 200d MA for US equity main indices).Need more good news on US growth.

🔹 Action: Getting ready to add more risk (starting with BTC). This week and after: I want to see US trade partners lowering their tariff and non-tariff barriers; US March payroll > 139k and unemployment rate < 4.3%; ISM Non-Manufacturing > 52. Those are my conditions to add risk again.

🔹 Project/Reports/Trade Setups [Updates]:

• Surviving "Liberation Week"
• Is the bottom in?
• COIN: Value Hunting After the Sell-Off
• Market Update: Toning down the noise
• BTC Price Breakdown
• Option Strategies for a Range-bound Market

Niklas

🔹 Positioning: Slowly switching bullish - Stopped farming stables and switched mostly to farming points (raw and via Pendle YTs) and tokens, both of which are assumed to be worth more in the future. Mainly farming AO, Ethereal, Ethena, Level.

Furthermore buying more on every dip, as well as continuing to DCA into BTC, SOL, ENA, PENDLE. Looking to add MKR, TIA, AAVE as well.

🔹 Fundamentals: Currently slowly increasing exposure to majors. Trying to identify key narratives and tokens that will remain relevant. If I can’t decide between two tokens per narrative / sector I just buy both (e.g. ENA + MKR). Keeping dry powder in farms for new tokens.

🔹 Action: Continues to farm stables, and mostly DCA-ing. Swapping more ETH for BTC and accumulating slowly more BTC, SOL, Pendle, TIA and COIN stock. Looking into TRON and BNB, often disregarded as scammy, but they seem to have something going for them.

🔹 Project/Reports/Trade Setups [Updates]:

• BTC farming strategies, full exposure, reduced exposure and levered exposure
• Swapped from Hyperliquid exchange to Lighter.xyz to farm points, where the assets im looking for are available. Also entered the main vault.

Nicolai

🔹 Positioning: Neutral/Bullish → Looking to take advantage of peak “fear” conditions in the market - Actively trying to find ALTs to enter. Currently about 50% allocated, 50% stables.

🔹 Fundamentals:

Tariffs will likely have a big impact on the price action this week and in the coming weeks. I want to be able to take advantage of extreme fear that is likely to hits markets if all tariffs go through, and would expect things to soften later on. Many moving averages have been broken but I am attributing this to be in line with that market uncertainty from non-crypto indicators and news, as crypto generally have been hit with positive isolated news.

🔹 Action: DCA’ed into the following positions:

• SYNT - Stopped DCA’ing. Reached amount I am happy with.
• IO
• SOL - Stopped DCA’ing. Reached amount I am happy with.
• Continue intraday trading on Paradex to farm XP.

🔹 Project/Reports/Trade Setups [Updates]:

• IO
  • Still bullish on IO based on the report and discussions posted on Discord. Performance will still likely depend on the broader market. Continue to have more partnerships
    • My average entry price is $0.79
• SYNT - I like the idea of having real-time data streams faster than classic RPC/APIs through pub/sub. Anyone can publish (earn) or subscribe (buy) data. They are working with various other chains and projects (e.g., in close talks with Avax, Ondo, Hedera and others)
• Paradex
  • Still a solid experience despite HyperLiquid still having the nicer experience.
    • Currently looking to enter some shorts in alts that spiked from mindshare.

Jake

🔹 Positioning: Neutral/bullish - Around ~50% allocated here and still holding a lot of stablecoins, slowly accumulating BTC, SOL and to a much lesser degree, TIA. As for farms, the breakdown is as follows:

• Noble Boosted Yield Vault
• eUSDE PT
• Tbills / Coinbase USDC
• Summer Lazy Protocol Vaults (6-7% USD-denominated APR) plus SUMR token farming
  • New vaults with a conservative base yield, SUMR tokens locked till July 1

🔹 Fundamentals: I turned neutral, from bearish/neutral in the short term and optimistic in the long term so farming with stables while slowly building out core positions. BTC continues to be the main contender, with constructive tailwinds in a BTC-dominated market.

🔹 Technical:

• BTC: Bidding into $76K level if we test the local lows again.
• SOL: Scaling in down to $100, but anything below $120 appears to be a great entry long term.
• TIA: DCA over months, no specific price levels. Below ~$3 per TIA seems like a good entry over the long run.

🔹 Action: No new positions: DCAing slowly into core holdings over the next few months, not catching any falling knives, particularly on alts.

🔹 Project/Reports/Trade Setups [Updates]:

• Market Updates: Latest setup of my positioning and thoughts on the market
• Summer Finance: New farming opportunities using trusted lending protocols, competitive base yields compared to onchain alternatives at the time of writing
• Uniswap v4 and Hooks: Many new exciting projects here - strong yield, MEV, and token launchpad projects launching.
• Data Availability Projects: Quick overview of the top projects in the DA field.